broke a funding rate record by achieving $1,000,000 within 49 minutes
.Don't Be Patchman
is another bizarre game.World of Callisto
is another weird project. Turn down your speakers because the audio is a bit too loud when a ship's alarm starts blazing.Albert & Otto
is another Limbo-like game, but dominated by whiteness instead of black darkness.
It is starting to get a little dry for good video game project launches. GDC is approaching on March 2nd, so many developers should be hesitating to launch around that week.
Here is a little adventure to an insight about better understanding Kickstarter campaigns that I've gained while making my Imgur graphs
First, look at the "Backers by tier over time" graph for a popular campaign like That Dragon Cancer
. The Law of Large Numbers
is important here because by having larger samples from a population, a more accurate representation of the large population should start to emerge. Popular campaigns are easier to illustrate what I'm going to talk about because they have more backers.http://i.imgur.com/i9GIJdo.png
The most populated rewards tiers have what can be described as an S-shape. This shape results from booming at the start with big y-axis gains in new backers, a slower period for gains in the middle (The infamous Kickstarter trough) and another increase in new backers near the end of the campaign.
Next, look at the "Percentage of the total number of backers by reward tier over time" graph for That Dragon Cancer
and notice how the tiers plateau in that graph. The $15 tier hugs the 60% line throughout the entire campaign. Isn't that interesting? Notice the other tiers also staying about the same percentages. Is this exposing probabilities for how reward tiers are getting picked? It looks like it.
This stabilizing in the percentage of backers at the main reward tiers is happening to other popular campaigns, not just That Dragon Cancer
. Below are links to more examples.http://i.imgur.com/WCS6eMF.png http://i.imgur.com/1uZpGBd.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/jZX9egk.png http://i.imgur.com/Sb2hPZT.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/P7jv3ds.png http://i.imgur.com/KsuuLa3.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/ub1Perg.png
Now start thinking about a pair of imaginary dice that when rolled will decide which reward tier will be picked when a new backers arrives. What that "Percentage of the total number of backers by reward tier over time" graph provide is an idea for how the probabilities for those imaginary dice are weighted. Some dice outcomes have greater probabilities, which is why tabletop game designers have to create rules to deal with the number 7 having the greatest chance to be rolled
with two traditional fair dice. The probability of a $10,000 backer can be thought of as so low that a $10,000 pledge didn't happen within the duration of many campaigns. That probability may be too small to even be visible on the graph.
After realizing that because the weightings of the imaginary dice are not shifting much over time, there needs to be an explanation for what is creating the S-shape for in the "Backers by tier over time" graph. A possible explanation I found is that when a project gains momentum and more people are finding it, more imaginary throws of the same pair of dice are happening. When the momentum drops and is experiencing less eyes on it, less throws are happening. Each backer is making his or her own decision about what tier he or she will select. I could rephrase this as more rolls are happening in the time at the start and end of the campaign, while rolls are happening less frequently in the middle.
The big insight in this post is actually that I feel more can be learned about campaigns by watching when those probabilities aren't stabilizing. Something is causing the behaviour of backers to change. Discovering the source of the change means it could be mitigated or intentionally utilized on future campaigns.
What do many backers shift towards when they are trying to upgrade their pledges to help during the last few days?http://i.imgur.com/KM2R9NA.png http://i.imgur.com/EIMpVX8.png
What happens when an early-bird reward gets filled?http://i.imgur.com/F3DLLpG.png http://i.imgur.com/KyPWv3g.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/wBTJIQp.png
What can happen when new rewards tiers are added during the campaign?http://i.imgur.com/AamRipQ.png http://i.imgur.com/E051E4O.png
So far I've observed that graphs about the percentage of backers at reward tiers can stabilize if there are no early-bird tiers at all, if the backers don't need to upgrade their pledges to save the campaign (Because it can be already over its minimum goal or trending strongly to it) and if no new reward tier is added during the campaign that may start taking backers away from an existing tier. Hardcore fans and family backing in the first few days can be said to be rolling a different higher weighted dice.